GOP INSIDERS PREFER ROMNEY – AT 9:41 A.M. ET:  We're talking about "conventional wisdom" here.  And we should be quick to point out that "conventional wisdom" within the GOP in 1980 said that Reagan could never be elected.  So, take this with a grain of salt, or a more politically correct seasoning.  From The National Journal:

Texas Gov. Rick Perry may be surging in polls of Republican primary voters, but his party's Insiders aren't convinced he'd be the best general election candidate. More than two-thirds of Republican Insiders say Mitt Romney has a better chance than Perry of defeating President Obama in 2012, according to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Many Republican Insiders acknowledged Perry's appeal to conservatives but questioned his ability to win over independent voters. "Perry can fire up the base, but this election will be won in the middle, not on the fringes," said one. Said another, "Having trouble ID-ing a single independent who'd vote for Perry."

Democratic Insiders echoed that assessment by an even larger majority. "This election is sitting on a platter for Republicans if they do it right," said one. "Romney is probably good enough. Perry will get drilled by independent voters and women." Another quipped, "Rick Perry is all base and no swing."

Insiders in both parties raised questions about Perry's durability under the intense scrutiny of a presidential campaign. "As a conservative Republican, I love Rick Perry," said one Republican Insider, who added "but as a campaign strategist, I know the degree to which a few self-reinforcing oppo-hits can devastate a candidate." A Democratic Insider said plainly, "Perry's mouth will do him in."

COMMENT:  I have to say that I share those concerns.  Perry has a long paper trail, and part of it is made up of quotes that can be devastating to independents, like his claim that Social Security is unconstitutional.  He is one of the easiest candidates to run against, at least on paper, than anyone I've ever seen in the presidential sweepstakes.

On the other hand...Perry is known as a shrewd, effective campaigner, someone who's never lost an election.  Reagan was able to overcome his image as a far-out right-wing guy buy effectively marketing himself.   Of course, Reagan was already a national figure by the time he got the Republican 1980 nomination. 

Can Perry do a Reagan?  There are three debates this month.  I suspect we're going to find out.

September 2, 2011